RecentAIt does not be understood that the site of the stock market more and more lets one see , big a plate of index rises everyday like roller coaster to fall , stir win general approval is nervous , the stock market actually is why , has bull market finished actually? Have passed the long-term adjustment in one and dullAWhether had the market foam of share been squeezed after all completely? Now Chinese economic real overheat, inflation when our side quietly occur? Bring these doubts, I have visited to possess the name of " Taiwan first tactful analyst "< prefix="st1">< st="on" productid="">Zhang<>Mr, is currentlyCIOIt is chief
Zhang Wei Min is the bond journalist of Taiwan most early, daily cool detachment looks on this one to flood the drastic fluctuations of stock market of main force and big household color , feel that is hard to ponder. Afterwards heGo abroadMBA, develop overseas. Is in Europe , he have the Asia that a investment company takes charge of in Britain for 4 years fund manager and person. Between which, he not only cares about Taiwan company , also values continent company very much , and, frequently with some domestic analyst exchange opinions of foreign capital, discusses the problem that Chinese macroeconomy develops now. When he brings rich experience, leaves Britain to return to Taiwan again , opensOnlyFrom fund, manager person becomes bond analyst2005Year afterwards, he has taken charge of one after another to state the Paris fund of 10 thousand as well as the country sea investment of rich orchid g forest fund inspector general, with investment experience and the knowledge of self, analyse entire Chinese market present situation.
When he had been asked and is for the current domestic view of capital market , he first affirms: Capital market is periodicity, foam can shatter eventually surely. Then, he says that is for the analysis of continent stock market: "1995In year, I have written a article, title lets to be from fictitious prosperity to the foam of fatality, have put forward fatality theory. My general idea is the first person of the domestic at that time who sees many stock markets firmly , and think that the foam of China is the foam of a fatality , is impossible to can hide. "
When asking about the reason of fatality foam, Zhang Wei Min has given such explanation: China arrives , is still the country of one and a half side marketization economies only until now, because the necessity and marketization that has only half cause the appearance of economic foam easily. For example steel factory, if electricity price is low, coal price is also low, its profit is surely empty and high , because of China news the shelf of coal price is not marketization; Again for instance Chinese petroleum, if international crude price rises , , Chinese domestic government does not allow retail oil to rise in price , Chinese oil price is not marketization in, so cause naturally petroleum becomes this victim in which. In China, many prices of raw material are twisted since being not marketization, is hard to reflect genuine market supply and demand , so have caused a lot of fictitious prosperous and fictitious declines on economy, when two macroscopic last biggest prices are twisted, it is interest rate and exchange rate.
Exchange rate and interest rate twisted have caused Chinese economic necessity is twisted, what is the first to be affected is exchange rate , is low relatively; Additionally, one is interest rate , is under the pressure of inflation , interest rate is still such and low , also has twisted quilt naturally. But eventually, is this two and twisted to cause what result? Firstly, exchange rate is low, actually reflection is the asset price of entire China is low, RMB is too cheap, Chinese asset price will inevitably go rising; Secondly, the low representative of interest rate is cheap because of RMB, the price of fund is also very cheap, this will cause plenty of borrow money to occur , so, the mobility that causes domestic economy overflows. Zhang Wei Min has made forecast with the result of macro-economics that theory produces after this two coexistence , thinks that this is actually a kind of fatality of Chinese economy , and has now become realistic.
He still talks about , in those years, a sentence of deep feeling and the method that Japan uses in handling fatality foam say: " Japanese of same year is also not idiot "! On macroeconomy, any country will worry two matters , first is economic development, second is inflation. China also faces at the moment directly, is difficult choice to weigh.
He thinks that solves the method of this kind of twisted phenomenon only is oneness goes to price adjustment to position, that is said let RMB oneness land appreciate goes to position, let the oneness of interest rate land raising goes to position, this time the foam of fatality will not occur, but it is seemingly very difficult to accomplish this point. Because if oneness land appreciate RMB, the manufacturer of plenty of sale abroads faces meeting to go bankrupt , directly causes plenty of unemployments, and the cost of this kind of economic downturn is any a government, the Japanese government that includes same year does not be willing to undertake. So under this kind of contradiction, government can only let exchange rate slow, walk to go up , and the exchange rate of slow rising can have the effect of self reinforcement , can attract more fanaticism to make investment to pay attention to Chinese market , is eventually common to blow the foam of this fatality.
Face now economic foam, he feels that Chinese government2004Year2005The Chinese overheated economy of year increases RMB price , on interest rate, adjust position, the cost country of this kind of macroeconomy adjustment can still bear. But now, external environment has changed , foreign market is faced with the risk of decline, home market is faced with the risk of high inflation, if now again exchange rate goes up tune, it is to give exporter double strike; Same the rising of interest rate, is direct when tell foreign investment that it is Chinese that person throws money at once, but Sino-U.S. sharp difference has now had some points. Current situation, in the China on macro-economic policy already step forward dimension Jian.
Face these various problems is this to solve , Zhang Wei Min has elaborated own viewpoint: " my individual is the scholar of classical economy style, when inflation and economic development under weigh , individual thinks that primary goal is restraint inflation. "
He analyses , come withGDPIncreasing11.4%, in which having 4 percentage points is come from import and export. Will not however have 4 percentage points in this year perhaps exceed , it is been also that if forecast general idea has only 2 percentage points , the economy of this year increases speed at most9.4%. Perhaps, many persons can disagree on this saying , think that may rely on stimulating consumption and rely on interior need stimulate economic development, but actually, it is not quite possible. Because to restrain inflation, must suppress demand, this contradicts each other with encouragement consumption. Moreover current domestic inflation is overallness, and it is just evolving to malignant expectation, condition is so stern, though in short period, consumer desire may be still promoted , but is still to suppress demand absolutely since for a long period, seeing.
Therefore now, only method is to let the speed of economic growth put to postpone , though, this can directly influence stock market, however this Chinese economic disease Chi the high speed train of two years, have also arrived to rest , add oil and then continuously go the time of runing more safely.
Indeed, the fund of some fund companies andValue the development of Chinese capital market for a long time , think that the current of correction is the price of stock market. When price occurs change following, actually, essence has not yet changed.What reason is market expression is the relation of supply and demand , see from supply side that there are still a lot of excellent enterprises to think that develop constantly in Chinese domestic, compete appearance appear on the market financing; From demand, come to see that the active balance of foreign trade of China is still increasing , the income of resident is also increasing , supply and demand is still unblocked and vigorous, so, global investor also values Chinese market still.Is final, Zhang Wei Min, while accepting interview to all reader, has recommended a a book that he is reading recently, " the memoir of shelf Lin Si Pan, I recommend him to all investor, wish all to do investment in new one year can gains. "
