The China that runs rapidly economy whether should stop rest

RecentAIt does not be understood that the site of the stock market more and more lets one see , big a plate of index rises everyday like roller coaster to fall , stir win general approval is nervous , the stock market actually is why , has bull market finished actually? Have passed the long-term adjustment in one and dullAWhether had the market foam of share been squeezed after all completely? Now Chinese economic real overheat, inflation when our side quietly occur? Bring these doubts, I have visited to possess the name of " Taiwan first tactful analyst "< prefix="st1">< st="on" productid="">Zhang<>Mr, is currentlyCIOIt is chief
Zhang Wei Min is the bond journalist of Taiwan most early, daily cool detachment looks on this one to flood the drastic fluctuations of stock market of main force and big household color , feel that is hard to ponder. Afterwards heGo abroadMBA, develop overseas. Is in Europe , he have the Asia that a investment company takes charge of in Britain for 4 years fund manager and person. Between which, he not only cares about Taiwan company , also values continent company very much , and, frequently with some domestic analyst exchange opinions of foreign capital, discusses the problem that Chinese macroeconomy develops now. When he brings rich experience, leaves Britain to return to Taiwan again , opensOnlyFrom fund, manager person becomes bond analyst2005Year afterwards, he has taken charge of one after another to state the Paris fund of 10 thousand as well as the country sea investment of rich orchid g forest fund inspector general, with investment experience and the knowledge of self, analyse entire Chinese market present situation.
When he had been asked and is for the current domestic view of capital market , he first affirms: Capital market is periodicity, foam can shatter eventually surely. Then, he says that is for the analysis of continent stock market: "1995In year, I have written a article, title lets to be from fictitious prosperity to the foam of fatality, have put forward fatality theory. My general idea is the first person of the domestic at that time who sees many stock markets firmly , and think that the foam of China is the foam of a fatality , is impossible to can hide. "
When asking about the reason of fatality foam, Zhang Wei Min has given such explanation: China arrives , is still the country of one and a half side marketization economies only until now, because the necessity and marketization that has only half cause the appearance of economic foam easily. For example steel factory, if electricity price is low, coal price is also low, its profit is surely empty and high , because of China news the shelf of coal price is not marketization; Again for instance Chinese petroleum, if international crude price rises , , Chinese domestic government does not allow retail oil to rise in price , Chinese oil price is not marketization in, so cause naturally petroleum becomes this victim in which. In China, many prices of raw material are twisted since being not marketization, is hard to reflect genuine market supply and demand , so have caused a lot of fictitious prosperous and fictitious declines on economy, when two macroscopic last biggest prices are twisted, it is interest rate and exchange rate.
Exchange rate and interest rate twisted have caused Chinese economic necessity is twisted, what is the first to be affected is exchange rate , is low relatively; Additionally, one is interest rate , is under the pressure of inflation , interest rate is still such and low , also has twisted quilt naturally. But eventually, is this two and twisted to cause what result? Firstly, exchange rate is low, actually reflection is the asset price of entire China is low, RMB is too cheap, Chinese asset price will inevitably go rising; Secondly, the low representative of interest rate is cheap because of RMB, the price of fund is also very cheap, this will cause plenty of borrow money to occur , so, the mobility that causes domestic economy overflows. Zhang Wei Min has made forecast with the result of macro-economics that theory produces after this two coexistence , thinks that this is actually a kind of fatality of Chinese economy , and has now become realistic.
He still talks about , in those years, a sentence of deep feeling and the method that Japan uses in handling fatality foam say: " Japanese of same year is also not idiot "! On macroeconomy, any country will worry two matters , first is economic development, second is inflation. China also faces at the moment directly, is difficult choice to weigh.
He thinks that solves the method of this kind of twisted phenomenon only is oneness goes to price adjustment to position, that is said let RMB oneness land appreciate goes to position, let the oneness of interest rate land raising goes to position, this time the foam of fatality will not occur, but it is seemingly very difficult to accomplish this point. Because if oneness land appreciate RMB, the manufacturer of plenty of sale abroads faces meeting to go bankrupt , directly causes plenty of unemployments, and the cost of this kind of economic downturn is any a government, the Japanese government that includes same year does not be willing to undertake. So under this kind of contradiction, government can only let exchange rate slow, walk to go up , and the exchange rate of slow rising can have the effect of self reinforcement , can attract more fanaticism to make investment to pay attention to Chinese market , is eventually common to blow the foam of this fatality.
Face now economic foam, he feels that Chinese government2004Year2005The Chinese overheated economy of year increases RMB price , on interest rate, adjust position, the cost country of this kind of macroeconomy adjustment can still bear. But now, external environment has changed , foreign market is faced with the risk of decline, home market is faced with the risk of high inflation, if now again exchange rate goes up tune, it is to give exporter double strike; Same the rising of interest rate, is direct when tell foreign investment that it is Chinese that person throws money at once, but Sino-U.S. sharp difference has now had some points. Current situation, in the China on macro-economic policy already step forward dimension Jian.
Face these various problems is this to solve , Zhang Wei Min has elaborated own viewpoint: " my individual is the scholar of classical economy style, when inflation and economic development under weigh , individual thinks that primary goal is restraint inflation. "
He analyses , come withGDPIncreasing11.4%, in which having 4 percentage points is come from import and export. Will not however have 4 percentage points in this year perhaps exceed , it is been also that if forecast general idea has only 2 percentage points , the economy of this year increases speed at most9.4%. Perhaps, many persons can disagree on this saying , think that may rely on stimulating consumption and rely on interior need stimulate economic development, but actually, it is not quite possible. Because to restrain inflation, must suppress demand, this contradicts each other with encouragement consumption. Moreover current domestic inflation is overallness, and it is just evolving to malignant expectation, condition is so stern, though in short period, consumer desire may be still promoted , but is still to suppress demand absolutely since for a long period, seeing.
Therefore now, only method is to let the speed of economic growth put to postpone , though, this can directly influence stock market, however this Chinese economic disease Chi the high speed train of two years, have also arrived to rest , add oil and then continuously go the time of runing more safely.
Indeed, the fund of some fund companies andValue the development of Chinese capital market for a long time , think that the current of correction is the price of stock market. When price occurs change following, actually, essence has not yet changed.What reason is market expression is the relation of supply and demand , see from supply side that there are still a lot of excellent enterprises to think that develop constantly in Chinese domestic, compete appearance appear on the market financing; From demand, come to see that the active balance of foreign trade of China is still increasing , the income of resident is also increasing , supply and demand is still unblocked and vigorous, so, global investor also values Chinese market still.Is final, Zhang Wei Min, while accepting interview to all reader, has recommended a a book that he is reading recently, " the memoir of shelf Lin Si Pan, I recommend him to all investor, wish all to do investment in new one year can gains. "

He wanted to go to 20200 pounds

Yesterday afternoon, a new record high of the euro against the dollar, from 1.60 US dollars only about 15 points. Onceas at present 16,000 fine. Not discount the euro is not favorable, because the European Central Bank has been in the inflation rate. And the appreciation of the domestic currency is bound to lead to the influx of hot money, inflation worse - the same as if the renminbi contrary, the United States recently announced inflation relatively minor and do not have a breakthrough 3%, which suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not inspire serious problem of inflation also cut interest rates under the premise of the space. Of course, in the backdrop of economic globalization, the United States, the situation will not be long-term inflation slightly, particularly in the substantial depreciation of the expected, the United States announced on the 15th Producer Price Index (PPI) to increase substantially, and this has led not Analysis of the United States agencies less inflation worries. Including yesterday, Fischer, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, bluntly pointed out that continuing to cut to the dollar's depreciation may trigger serious inflation. His speech was clear that some euro bulls, the euro to fall to under 159. When wandering in the euro, pound sterling as beautiful scenery, day up about 300 points, has achieved a breakthrough in the 19,900. Forecast for today will test 20,000 pounds, and is likely to reach 20,200 before the end of the height. Of course, it all depends on the United States Subordinated Debt crisis on the impact of the British financial institutions, as well as the size of the British Government to save the country's financial institutions, the policies adopted. Yesterday, the sharp rebound in sterling, the direct reason for this is that the British Government might use unconventional means to save the market. My judgement is that the euro and the pound did not rule out cross-cover. From now till the end market remains concussion, which pounds the amplitude may be even greater. We can refer Yesterday, I wrote the commentary, according to the dollar index shock interval high parabolic Dixi.

Sichuan earthquake

National Premier Wen Jiabao in the Sichuan earthquake disaster area direction disaster relief, the salute disaster victims, has unfolded leader's rare real personality and boldness. Wen Jiabao easy to get excited cries in the mainland is widely known, because when he in the Dujiang weirs newly built elementary school, on-the-spot investigation rescue the earthquake the elementary student who buries in the ruins, is stepping on the mud, climbs up the rubble to pile, approaches to rescue the place. When he saw when the emergency personnel are rescuing two child who is stranded under the ruins, has bent the waist in the rain examination rescue situation Wen Jiabao, fell the tears to say loudly to the child: “I am Grandpa Wen Jiabao, the children must certainly endure! Certainly will be saved!”

"Hong Kong equities through train", as well as Japan and Singapore in the second half of the stock market may be opening up of China's investors

“the Hong Kong stock market direct bus” as well as the Japanese Singapore Stock market possibly opens in the second half of the year to the Chinese investors in the proposal the Hong Kong stock market direct bus in the technical arrangement, including the opening area, the bank which and the financial organ, the quota involves and so on, at present has prepared the ready, in the technology all things ready, only owes the east wind. What crest owes? National decision-making. In the past, because worried many, the government once “the Hong Kong stock market direct bus” will call to stop. But, opens afterward are possibly more than Hong Kong direct bus. That is, speaking of inland investor, not only may invest the Hong Kong stock market, but may also invest Japanese and the Singapore market. Although has one viewpoint to believe that promotes the external market the opportunity to be in inland stock market top digit movement, in the Hong Kong stock market low position movement situation is best. But, the policy was already formulated, was unable to know in advance the regional stock market's spot position several months ago. Although the Chinese Stock market is not good at present, breaks 3600 points from more than 6100, the condition has been horrible to look. But, Japan, Singapore, is not good including the Hong Kong Stock market, says from another aspect, the opportunities for investment is good. Why doesn't let the Chinese common people in quite low spot position leaving country? Buys under the value system as for the present global stock market to move, for example Citibank already broke 20. This is the trap or the opportunity, should realize by investor. a key spot is, lets the Chinese common people to foreign invest, possibly are only then more to invest the low attraction foreign investor to China. Cannot put briefly “inland people “the hard-earned money”, once leaves country, turns the overseas financial magnate inevitably “the plate Chinese meal”. acts according to various aspects information judgment, the Chinese government very possibly opens Japanese, Singapore and Hong Kong Stock market in the second half of the year to the Chinese investors. from this information judgment, the Chinese Stock market's bounce highly is small, time also very short

Living in China

we have delivered amount after all, get tax, nobody makes statistics , can not also make statistics of specific figure, how many taxes have we delivered after all? Following is the view of my individual:
1, salary and monthly salary exceed 2000, is surely
2, store money , believe that all have various bank cards! I also have many , because have no identical bank in different place, but inside basically have no money, because the salary of every month uses light. Store money to deliver interest tax, no matter how much you are , money lose money to deliver less, many money are delivered , will be delivered anyway. Say: China has 100 pieces of deposit, interest rate is 2%, so, interest tax is: 100( deposit) 2%( interest rate) the( interest tax rate)=of 5% 0.1 Yuan. That is said, Chinese stores 100 yuan in bank, is 1 hairs money interest is country. How many deposits has China? All may search for on net the data that authority announces.
3, take vehicle, everybody every month is taking vehicle! No matter you are to drive by oneself to take bus still, but sinking , are directly delivering tax from our the body , have however contained tax in our fare inside , because buy vehicle , buy oil , manage passenger transport to want to deliver tax, in these taxes has calculated the cost of rail cars in port certainly.
4 , telephone rate, no matter you are to know with telecommunications, move, Unicom and net , iron coherent . . . . . ., but price is different, tax is still the same to deliver , because these companies will deliver tax to country every year , they give the tax of country, is to cost from the words of us.
5 , housing, no matter you are to rent room to buy room still, buy room to deliver tax, do this all know that so rent room to deliver rent? Some person thinks that need not deliver , household buies room to want to deliver tax, actually landlord does not go to tax calculate rent in? So, rent room is also the same to have delivered tax.
6, water costs , no matter is when where use water, company, unit and public place are still that the water cost in home contains tax , it is used that now, China has no what city yet to offer free water.
7 , charge of electricity,
8, the cost of wide band contains
9, the cost of
10, buy subsistence
11, buy vegetable , also contain
12, buy clothing
After all what need not deliver tax, now, I
No matter having to do not need to deliver the place of tax, I think of these that say more , all will use in living! It will be amount that so if you are the 1000 Yuan of monthly salary, you are used to deliver the money of tax? Now, need to not make statistics! Even if having no specific data, all also know that deliver how many taxes.
Why will you deliver so many taxes in China , are still that everybody is willing to deliver? Why haven't you been the same to need not deliver tax? My individual thinks , because when China eats finance person is more, the income of this part of person have to come from tax delivered by oneself and that tax delivers with others, place is in China , even if you for those persons who eats finance say that it is also useless to waste the money of taxpayer, have only along with economic development, people the raising of consciousness, the person who eats finance decreases , we may have aspect to do not need to deliver tax. At that time, we may cry out for those persons that lean the money of taxpayer to live completely: " do not waste the money of taxpayer. " at that time you need not fear that those public servants do not handle affairs for you, current Hong Kong is so. Ha, , , China then can accomplish this point some time.

Control in the CPI this year, the goal will soon be 4.8 Paoshang

Gold oil rose again yesterday, in addition to the background of a weak dollar, global high inflation is an indisputable fact. Such as the United States next year's expected inflation has already reached 6.5 per cent. By comparison, prices rose most in China, however the inflation target set at 4.8%. Although the Prime Minister said that this is in order to control inflation expectations endless growth, a greater pressure on prices. But far from the goal, only to the attitude of pressure, the result is more dramatic rebound in the future. For example, I have repeatedly stressed that oil prices! First, we stressed that structural inflation, has repeatedly delayed the time to take measures and the situation at home and abroad was forced, saw that the prices increasingly out of control, the Government can only control that part - such as oil, electricity. According to a Reuters report, in the heart of the economically developed eastern coastal areas, gas stations started on the 25th limit has been implemented for diesel. Many filling stations queuing up at least one kilometer long. What is worse is that no oil increases, the logistics lines, broken. We should also remember that the snowstorm before the Spring Festival, why the fierce price up? One of the reasons is the Highway unreasonable. And the present situation when the same snowstorm, the difference is the past is not a road car, it is not a road car, a car without oil. Therefore judgement, the future price will very likely be the outbreak of the rising, and 10% will soon be a breakthrough. " Now China's Petrochemical Enterprises stock fell again and again, filling stations row from the group. I do not rule out that some oil companies in the joint operation forced the price hikes. Obviously, they are likely to adopt similar practices in Tibet thugs (a statement), and the Government does not wish to use the Olympic Games before the social turmoil of the psychological abducted and forced to come forward appease - Qilu Petrochemical strike after wage rose This is a typical success . We have a good face, not price increases. While the CPI data that the pretty, but the future of gambling inside. Artificially suppress prices, the key is that a small number of oil giant artificial monopoly, interest groups and government can take ordinary people kidnapped hostage. Because we are in breach of the price formation mechanism, including the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Finally the market will punish us, now, the oil prices lower than the international market prices, as well as certain future expectations rose that has been the main market in the same grain as tun hoarding oil products, oil refining enterprises have no incentive and supply of refined oil, The oil shortage is the root cause. The power plants have closed and the future government can only bow. This will lead to flatter the speculators, will be carried out in the end hoarding supplies. And the number of commodity speculation can be hoarding? ! I do not know. I only know that this year CPI at 4.8 control objectives would soon