Forcing to retreat

This text is " the value of April 2 China " reporter Qin Yi Min for the interview content published after I carry out interview, have reflected I at that time think to think of. Now, similar one week has passed , the economic case of the stock market has not yet occured what change, American loan crisis is still being continued , American the stock market still tendency downward, price/earning ratio has fallen to break 12; My error macro-economic uncertainty as before, the stock market is still tired and weak, it is even tired to is so weak that exceed my anticipation.
But what is unfortunate is that is lax except popularity , expectation tends to weak besides, newest statistical data shows , still speculate because of large quantities of subject shares in Gao Wei, the average price/earning ratio of the stock market of our country is still around 37 times; And see according to the "development" foresight that friend likes somewhat , in this year arising share price to reduce price/earning ratio the more the more " the high monster of the stock market appearance " when not is expected as a compartment is willing.
Besides, phoenix TV " Yi brave a seat talks " tonight broadcasts at eight o'clock " save city do not save still " to surge to argue programme, rebroadcast in tomorrow noon at one o'clock. Looking over is interested under certain condition friend watch when selecting.
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Forcing to retreat
- - visits the commentator
Content abstract because loan proportion is too high, building city has kidnaped bank; Because of participation number error is many, the stock market has bound popular will, so once cooling down , excessiveness has improper extrusion, foam breaks rapidly, so, the economy of our country has the risk of hard landing , society may also get impact steadily. When this various contradictions are gathered , I am to grasp main line to the prescription that happens , forcing to retreat know completely to expand; Return to industry and commerce , cool the agitation of the stock market fast; Slow pressure facilitates building city well shuffle; Increase wages , perfect welfare , promote the fast development of interior need.
　　Worth: It will still be lasted that Bank of China issues report forecast domestic now to know to expand, besides, the United Nations reports , also foresee that China will be faced with in this year to know seriously to expand to challenge , GDP will also put to postpone to 10.7%. For these forecasts, do you how to think?Marquis Ning: Chinese macroeconomy overheat has lasted for many years , so just have got is the continued unceasing macro-control of major means in last two years with monetary policy. But as a result, we have seen , till experience 1 or 2 of this year after rare snow calamity, macroeconomy data as before continuous 6 months " heat ", bank puts loan retaliate promotion, investment in the fixed assets has as before intimately, more the inflation that worsens rapidly in our country, is so for the overall economy of our country and the national economy and the people's livelihood have formed huge pressure.
Is also just saying because of such,
In fact, this kind of phenomenon as if a train that travels with high speed is hard to slow down as before after encountering unceasing brake is the same, aftermath is very fearful, that is said, when the clear macroeconomy of our country of two years the existent huge risk of hard landing. And it is low to adjust with initiative GDP growth rate, is because government has realized that the suffering that we are faced with not only also comes from outside from inside, it is domestic trouble and foreign invasion to may be called , so, just deal with with the monetary policy that reduces. In fact, the industrial enterprise profit data of 1 or 2 announced from State Statistics Bureau sees , same than have droped considerably, also, cause American economic continued deterioration because of American loan crisis, for our country export-oriented enterprise forms serious restriction, so, import and export have been the matters of the nail of iron plate basically for the decrease with its contribution rate reaching 60% of GDPs. I hope this data returns not as shrink too error, 10.7% I feel that some are ideal, keeping in 8% control should do not have been wrong.　WorthNow, on currency tight policy direction, have madeMarquis Ning: Refering to a series of data announced recently , tight monetary policy will not change , this is affirmed , because of government needs should correct major contradiction is inflation, if be out of control, will bring serious social problem. On this is slightest careless must not. But monetary policy tight for the stock market building city operation has formed pressure, so, the participator of this two markets hopes that" give a way out ", may also understand. But from the present momentum of development of two markets, the currency for building city is tight and impossible to move , and is for the stock market , its major pressure is not , is to estimate value pressure since tight policy and size not reduces hold , so even carry out comfortable policy for the stock market, bear market is also the fact that is hard to change. So, my individual judges that tight policy will be still carried out further , and has arrived after the Olympic Games, perhaps, center trip can just change in accordance with condition.　　WorthAmerican loan crisis is broken out already for a year , shakes continuously while facing American finance market, government lowers interest frequently, introduce is many to save city measure. Now, whether may you judge that American economy begins to walk into decline?Marquis Ning: American recession when field circle has become common understanding, it does not be avoided to say for this that even American the president and America unite to store up chairman , evidently, it is what that the pressure of American recession has! Just since it is so, American government has just emploied a series of measure to stimulate American economy. But I have said, this time originating from the American economic big depression of loan crisis is for the national policy of " with U.S. dollar overdraft world " that America pursues for years settle accounts completely, is for American of a long period " the life philosophy that maintains prosperity with overdraft " settle accounts , it is the century crisis that is impossible to save by normal way except war. , its crisis is delivered with the mobility overflow that grant U.S. dollar over causes , now from is convinced to market to pour into mobility solution, just claim " combat poison with poison " " Chinese type therapy ", generally speaking, take affect until genuine salvation. This, we can also see from the American tendency of the stock market, after when the so strong policy introduce " save city", beautiful share also is symbolically rebound in the hundreds of concussion cities that then falls into to rise suddenly to slump, belong to basically to get help from within quotations, this shows that market has been very disappointed for economic resurgence, as share supernatural Ba-Fei-Te says for its shareholder, " the good time of the stock market has sunk. "　WorthAmerican loan crisis has produced externalMarquis Ning: Have said upstairs, the industrial enterprise profit of our country of 1 or 2 shrinks is a lot of, this is the one of aftermath of the loan crisis impact import and export corporation of our country. Refering to trading data, now, the favorable balance of trade of our country for America has decreased considerably, have also testified from another angle our country Hong the influence of American loan crisis and tune policy to Chinese economy. Now comes to see , the still Chinese profit of import and export corporation of American recession major influence that loan crisis causes is but seen for a long period, American economic downturn will still influence China in the non economic fields such as politics and military affairs.　WorthToday of economic globalization,Marquis Ning: Economic globalization is big tendency, China is the necessity of this tendency development by addition of WTO. But what is very unfortunate is that it is joining the time of the WTO of 7 years , world economy and trade develops and has met , is major to challenge , western etc. regional economies has encountered major crisis. What is more important is that exactly when right now, Chinese economy has also gone on a important climacteric, macroeconomy overheat need to cool down , the building city foam needs of the stock market are extruded , inflation needs are restrained firmly , and are contradictory to lie in , have too high proportion because of loan, building city has kidnaped bank; Because of participation number error is many, the stock market has bound popular will, so once cooling down , excessiveness has improper extrusion, foam breaks rapidly, so, the economy of our country has the risk of hard landing , society may also get impact steadily.
When this various contradictionsGrasp main line, forcing to retreat know completely to expand; Return to industry and commerce , cool the agitation of the stock market fast; Slow pressure facilitates building city well shuffle; Increase wages , perfect welfare , promote the fast development of interior need. I think , only it as this, we can just pass this dangerous issue of Chinese economic society relatively smoothly probably , can just beat back the annihilation of producer for China of " Chinese threat theory " in the year of the Olympic Games probably , realize the warped head of Chinese nation really, rise abruptly with the large country that stays.
Value China: Qin Yi Min