Have excessive self criticism, over self make. Always insisting to know for each kind of situation thorough just do a investment afterwards , and often sell this investment too early, because think that it does not resemble deserved case to so improve. Because having very rich new conception, can squeeze out many already some investments. Management style is too strict, too bundle hand bundle foot. Have feared to recognize that self is successful, Survival is Do decision with the method - - 1,About Quantum Fund 銆€銆€"The understanding of being us for located world is inborn and not complete , there is always gap between the actual state of matter, expectation and the view of participator, have time gap very little need not take notice of , but time has too big gap, even become decision incident process important factor. History is caused by misunderstanding, prejudice and the mistake of participator."
銆€銆€"That1966Annual matter, because I have few understandings for American bond , want to seek method self education. I establish the model account of a 100 thousand dollars with the fund of company , and divide these money into 16 copies , then use a or two copies of investment in which on any stock which I think that am especially attractive. I have written a brief report, explain that I buy the reason of each kind of stock , and track continuously with monthly magazine , discuss this investment report , discuss the development in which, I also offer one per month Ji effect record sheet. I use this model account as tool , develop the business of investment organization. This pattern is very successful, it lets me contact investment again to enclose."
銆€銆€"My first major action is on the truck field of freight transport. I invest in the 4 units in 16 model account units on the share of freight transport , accomplishment is very good, make model account get pretty well Ji effect. Then, I establish a small-scale investment fund according to this investment model combination". (P20)
銆€銆€"If you are the person who is engaged in adventure conscientiously, you need discipline, the discipline that I rely on is very deep vigilance, vigilance assistance I warn me before problem is out of control, if I relax those discipline, I certain meeting of course fall into diligent work again is not on my regularness general affairs that becomes specially with other. I fear to recognize that self is successful, because so, may corrode my vigilance, once you are regard as success , of course, vigilance will reduce , the problem that etc. meet , it does not be moved that you can sit quietly , you know that self is very successful , will always try to get rid of difficulty. To this kind of extent, you have lost to get rid of difficult ability."(P30)
銆€銆€"The structure of quantum fund is pretty- -We are called'It is', then in these larger tendencies, we also"(P37)
銆€銆€" .Because we do not believe these methods, these methods are usually to conflict with efficiency market theory for basic, this theoretical and my not complete understanding and reflection theory, I think these methods99%Time is1%Time can fail1%. I discover that there are some systematic risks, can not simplify when these usually assume the assumption inside of market continued running, I as do not be interested continuously especially, and I discover these methods of measuring to have no advantage for me."(P39) "My characteristic have no special investment style, it is correct to describe , it is that I try to change my style to go to cooperate with various situations. Look back the history of quantum fund, you will discover that this fund change passes very many property: In first decade, quantum fund has nearly never applied macroscopic investment tool; Then, macroscopic investment becomes mainstream; But recently, we begin to make investment on industrial asset. I am willing to use beneath, is clear this saying: I am not to operate according to certain rule, I seek the change in game rule."(P42) I run according to assumption, I the series incident of expected forms a proposition, take my proposition and actual incident process again to compare , may so let me get a standard, as with assessment my assumption. This is concerned with some intuition factors, however, I can not determine the role of straight party whether have is so important, because I also have a theoretical configuration, I seek not balanced situation, this kind of situation can send the signal that makes our bank move , so, I am actually to merge to utilize theory , do decision with instinct, you like , may be called it intuition. "My a lifetime"
- - - Mr.Jesse Livermore1940.11.28Suicide
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"My trade system is very sound, defeat the- - -That wait opportunity ripens"
"Whether can comply with have"
- - - - Mr.Jesse Livermore1929Annual "I recognize that self may commit mistake, this point makes me feel that not safe, my vigilance makes me maintain alertness , is always prepared to correct my mistake. I when this on two layer surfaces: The layer surface in abstractness goes up , I believe that self commits wrong faith unavoidably to melt into the foundation stone of a kind of complex philosophy; On the layer surface of individual, I am a very fastidious person, I choose self , also choose the illness of others, but because of the so fastidious ability, that I also have forgiveness very much, if I can not excuse self, can not recognize my mistake , am for others , it is the source of shame that criminal is wrong , recognize for me that my mistake is proud source. Once we know that not complete understanding is the way of the world, criminal is wrong to have no shame , only know mistake do not alter is just shame."
銆€銆€" .I operate according to investment assumption,"
銆€銆€"The actual process of my expectation and incident has Qi different, do not express that I can sell stock, I can inspect proposition again , try to determine that what place has made mistake, I may adjust my proposition, or I may discover some external influence to intervene entire tendency; Actually, finally, I may increase my position instead of selling it. But it does not be moved that I will not smell wind absolutely, will not neglect Qi is different, I will begin the inspection of criticism , can maintain the attitude of considerable doubt generally speaking, in the aspect of I change the change that sets a topic and meets situation , but I do not remove this kind of matter completely." "Because I so have criticism, others often thinks that I am to turn over market style, but it is very prudent that I am all right for contrary tendency, the tendency that I may meet with disastrously is ravaged. Basis my tendency theory, tendency initial meeting self reinforcement , final meeting self-destruction, therefore under the most conditions, tendency is your friend, have only when the climacteric of tendency change tendency follower can get injury. The most of time I am tendency follower , however, I at any time alertness self is a member of masses, it is always noticing climacteric."
銆€銆€"All custom see to believe that market is correct throughout, my view is happened on the contrary, I suppose that market is wrong always, even if my assumption makes mistakes occasionally, I use it still as operating assumption. This is not to say that all should always counter tendency and are all right , it is opposite to happen , in the most of time, tendency can take advantage , will be revised merely occasionally independently wrongly , has only the tendency that all should just violate under this kind of situation. This kind of thought way guides me to seek the defect of each kind of investment theory , I know that when defect is what, my vigilance can just get satisfaction , will not so let me throw away this proposition , lets me run with stronger confidence on the contrary, because I know that it is incorrect to have what place, market does not know. Before I am in wave, the tendency that I pay close attention to the possible sign of exhaustion; If I think that tendency has passed head, I may try the tendency that violates. Under the most of conditions, if we violate tendency, usually, metropolis encounters punishment, have only when climacteric can just get reward."( 2,About Soros ' s Philosophy Put self to carry out thought besides the matter I am detached, but not definitely self-made. Loss money let me painful, winning, let me happy, no what thing than negation own feeling has crushing strength more. May conceal feeling, but pressure big, concealing the needs of feeling possibility makes pressure big get can not bear. I encourage to at the same time undertake problem together, but they must be willing to recognize that they have problem. Morals are Any person who is engaged I do not hope to critical Needs and adventure relevant stimulate ISeek the defect of each kind of investmentDo notI will notA investment0.57.The place withMy is to maintainI special Do not notice theThis kind of ForcePlease remember: "Market total" It is place that market can have period with turbulent great waves , makes my investment style one have no. I insist to form a kind of proposition first before investing in some positions. However, will discover that one may identify tendency of the market, need to spend some time , have time, market when I just try to form a kind of theory to prove its situation , tendency has worsened , it may have crushing influence if this kind of case occurs again and again. I am good at to control tide , but not be good at to control the ripples in swimming pool. Use the work of ordinary point , management investment
Change sentence words to say , if you do is normal work, if you are business representative or craftsman, your achievement and your workload are directly related , you work , is the more diligent, product the more, visit the more customer, may take the more order, in which, there is direct relation. However you when take risks , if you make correct judgment, if you have correct insight force, , you need not work hard. Is however wrong if you commit , also your actual process of assumption and incident has Qi is different, you need to do very earnest research , find out wrong place, you do not succeed the more , must work the more , come to correct this kind of situation , if investment combination Ji effect is very good, the matter that you will do in which has the relation of a kind of inverse ratio the more less. Certainly, case reason will be so. But I do not like work, I do only the work that reaches the absolutely minimum quantity that decision needs. Many persons love work, they collect excessive information , far exceed to reach the quantity needed by conclusion, and become to indulge on some investment projects, reason is that they are personal to know these things. My difference, I concentrate attention on basic essential factor. When must work , I can work madly, because my very angry self must work , this is the basic essential factor in my method, if I know that what place is incorrect, I will try to prevent. But if matter is not run so, we face reality , the expression of a few of investment manager persons also has prosperity and decline appearance the case of asking , they judge correctness first , show very excellent, then become toe Gao Qi Ang, finally, lead along by situation to go. I can not also exempt custom, matter regular meeting such son, everything smooth, my meeting is absentminded , will then begin to make mistakes , situation may change very quickly , is not that I control situation, is situation leads along me to go , this is the reason that we should not lose vigilance forever. Experience tells me, usual I may control infringement when20The limit of %. If I look back own expression,20%, then, I revise mistake
@ you the program
Not use completely, in fact, if matter makes mistakes , and I know where is wrong , but I think that original proposition is correct, infringement is to come from external reason, it is empty that I may increase position relatively instead of selling one, I must know why can lose money. @ matter makes
I will feel that am painful, I deny animal instinct very upwards , my past actual management quantum fund, my meeting backache, I beginning the problem that severe pain makes as my investment combination signal. Backache will not tell me what place incorrect- - -For example, take off backache- - -But backache makes me seek to be short of My major theory is , we are doomed for the understanding of located world, is inborn and not complete , we for make the understanding needed by decision situation, actually receive these decision influence. When participation between its matter the actual result of incident and the expectation of person, inborn have a kind of Qi is different. Some time Qi different little arrive need not take notice of. However have time Qi is different and too big , will become to decide the important factor in incident process. This is not theory of very easy communication. I may explain major- -In fact, it( Imperfect understanding). However this saying can't communicate all theories, because of me say not complete only is concerning our understanding, also participate in with us. Trying the actual condition of understanding relevant. Actual condition is influenced by our understanding, it is the goal of a move. On the one hand,This is to accept to know function; On the other hand, person makes the decision that influences actual condition , these decision is not that actual condition makes basis , and it is to reach according to person for the explanation of actual condition- -I am called this to participate in function. Two functions take affect from opposite direction , can disturb mutually each other under some conditions between, two move mutual with the form expression of two-way reflection feedback function come out. Now, I become the figure of the public, this book begins to treat conscientiously by people, I begin to get some valuable feedbacks , so show that theory that I state has some weaknesses. What I now recognize me in some word words make having pretty not accurate , even link"Reflect"This noun is also the same, my participator that describes with it to include having thought ability participation between which incident structure, also describe two-way feedback function with it to destroy incident process with participator accept to know , to cause not balanced special situation. Preceding a kind of is the method of treating matter , it is general theory that has universal correctness. Second kind denotes the phenomenon that can occur intermittently , but when this kind of phenomenon occurs , will create history. We discuss your Basically, it is concerning the participator role who has thought ability , also and his thought as well as the incident participated in relation relevant, because he will try to know self to be in it , as the situation of actor. On tradition, we think that understanding is passive role basically , participate in being actively active role, in fact, two roles disturbs each other , makes participator impossible, make any decision according to pure or complete knowledge. Classical economic theoretical assumption market participator the knowledge action with complete basis, this assumption is wrong, participator accept to know influence the market that they participate in , but market behavior also influences the thought of participator. Under this kind of case, will analyse market behavior, and when"Complete"The condition of supposing Economic theory must be reconsidered from foundation , has a uncertain factor in economic process, approximately go up never person has dug into. It can produce definite result if comparing with natural science have no a kind of social sciences, economy is also not exceptional. For thinking deeply , it is moulding the role that plays the role of on incident , we must alter to pick completely different view. We practice think incident from a series of fact form , it is also to arise another group incident after a group of incident , forms the chain terminated never. When have the participator of thought ability participation in between which situation, chain and not is from directly a series of fact connection together.Ask:When trying to know the participator What? Repeat independently, Ask: When trying to know that there
The first matter that we must know , is participator can be not limited in thought fact, they must consider to include self in the thought of all participator, so, bring a kind of uncertain factor , because the thought of participator does not be equal to fact, take charge of a kind of role in the aspect of moulding fact, participator accept know between and the actual state of matter nearly always has gap, there is always difference in the aspect of actual result and the wishes of participator, this kind of difference is to know the key in historical process , is to know the key of financial market power. When I look , misunderstanding and mistake the role who plays the role of on human thing, equate with the role in biology that sudden change plays the role of. This is my key theory, this point has many influences certainly , is not important for others , is for my but most important, my all matters, is taking this as foundation, and I notice that I am for the view of incident , when very various and popular view is not identical. Popular view says that financial market is in balanced state, time can arise exception certainly, because market is not perfect, is have random roam nature, usually, can change with other random incidents. This kind of view is to be deduced similarly wrongly according to Newton physics to come out. My view is completely different, I think Qi different state inborn hide in our not complete understanding, there are property in financial market, is participator accept know between and the actual state of matter has difference, sometimes, this kind of difference may be neglected , at some time, if not consider this point, can not know the process of incident.
Ask: May you
Qi different state usually appears with the program of prosperity and decline( boom/bust sequences), but is not that the always such process of prosperity and decline is not very balanced: It accelerates first slowly , then reaches peak in disastrous tendency turns on the contrary. I have discussed a lot example in" financial alchemy", including the group enterprise upsurge of 60 decade. The example of the investment trust field typical case of real estate, as well as 70 decade the world that springs up borrows upsurge, when the Mexican crisis of 1982 years arrival peak etc. are. I develop theoretical, this kind of system concerning the freely floating system of exchange rate, also have to move towards extreme trend , however this kind of extremity is usually still balanced. I discussion some comparisons not pure Qi different case, picture the financing of 80 decade takes over upsurge, have these cases between, popular prejudice and popular tendency, have reflection move mutual. Focal point is , from certain aspect, actually these Qi different case is exceptional , any reflection of incident sequence moves mutual, a very long duration is pretty not obvious. I have no in" financial alchemy" this describes is very clear, I describe with same word - - - - reflection - - - - two-way move mutual, also describe to cause this kind of incident structure moved mutual. I now still this, but I hope to explain , is reflection moves mutual to appear occasionally, and reflection structure is permanence. In you may consider as normal situation, the discrepancies of actual situation and thought are big , and usually, some strength meetings pull them , is near somewhat. One of reason is that all may study from experience; The 2 of reason is that all may change and mould social situation according to own desire actually. This is I the so called near average state of weighing apparatus. But under some situations, the thought of all and the actual state gap between matter are great , and have not pulled near possibility, I am called as this kind of case to be far away from balanced state. The state of being far away from balance divides into two kinds: A kind of is development is not balanced , under this kind of case, it is big that popular prejudice and popular tendency can strengthen mutually each other up to gap , cause disastrous collapse; Another is static quiet is not balanced , however, this kind of case is being seldom discovered in financial market , feature is very the alone broken thought pattern of rigidness, as well as the society that very much becomes rigid state, this two cases will not change , dogma and realistic situation gap are great. In fact, when actual situation changes , no matter how slow the speed of change is, adjusts if dogma does not be done the words that meet these changes , the discrepancy of ideological and actual situation is big. The case of not balanced static quiet may last very for a long time, lift the example with a familiar us, as if the situation of Soviet Union is the same. By comparison, Soviet system collapse may be regard as the example of not balanced development. We may development and static quiet not balance is regard as two extremity, in the close balanced state between two is regard as road. I like this 3 kinds of state of thing than make the 3 forms of water in nature: Liquid state , firmly form or gaseous state. The 3 kinds of state of thing. Nature is not identical very much, the behavior of water in 3 forms is also different. Same reason is suitable for is having participator the body of thought ability , when we think that it" may be normal" state take off, I so called two-way reflection passes on function is not very important, may neglect; But when being close or arriving to be far away from balanced state , reflection becomes very important, we can see the program of prosperity and decline.
Ask: Do you how to divide
Boundary line is very fuzzy , nearly has many strengthes in running at any time , lead us to enter to be far away from balanced state, these strengthes get the resistance of reaction; Usually, the reaction that makes reply original state can gain upper hand , but occasionally, reaction will become invalid , that is we see system mood for or revolutionary time. I for this kind of condition is interested especially, however, if I tell you, I have a theory that develops very completely , may explain and foresee these conditions, I is lying , I am still in exploration stage. I when the expression on financial market, than the historical wise person as handling, because of financial market, offer a space with more clear boundary line, and information passes quantification. May obtain openly.
Ask: Now, let us concentrate attention
I try this in" financial alchemy", but obvious do get is not very good, what the most of persons get from it is that market price is influenced by the prejudice of participator, if be so and too obvious only , need not discuss. The process of prosperity and decline has only in market price the method of having influence basic surface, also is influence arrives have responded generally acknowledged when market price basic surface, just meeting occur. See some examples that I lift in book, in group enterprise upsurge, group enterprise purchases the ability of profiting with the stock that they estimate high as currency, the ability of profiting worths soon afterwards used for the proof stock estimated high. When world borrows upsurge in, bank measures the loan ability of debtor nation with so called liability ratio, these ratioes includes debt remaining sum to take national production hair the ratio of volume, or the debt expense of principal and interest takes the ratio of export volume( repay debt ratio). They think that these ratioes are objective to measure standard, but the campaign that gets the very bank influences fact proof debt ratio , stop loan such as bank, national production hair volume will worsen and so on. Between so called basic surface and value, conflict is not regular to occur , however once occur, will promote a kind of beginning possible self reinforcement , but final meeting the process of self failure. In usually appraise behavior can include some mistakes, the most common mistake is: The basic surface that not found out worths , can not actually stand independently besides appraise behavior, group enterprise upsurge is such son, each surplus growth rate may rely on taking over manufacture to come out. When world borrows upsurge in is also so, bank loan campaign will be helpful to improve bank to guide the related ratio figure of the very loan campaign. But condition is not that throughout such, Japanese land upsurge is not wrong , is the action that has foresight painstakingly , Yi is encouraging save , lower living standard, in order to is the honor of larger Japanese pursuit. Japanese is seemingly tool using reflection, reason is very probably that they control so called basic surface from different knowledge tradition, for them, seem very natural, and American believes the hand cannot see. When their filling in which , practice since Bi time, we now try to imitate them.
Ask: Reflection can
Absolute will not, but reflecting to become go to obviously the degree that lets one pay attention , in the beginning at least must can self reinforcement. If the time enough length in continued this kind of self reinforced process, will become finally surely can not sustain , because the wide gap between ideological and actual situation will become too big , is too deep otherwise for the prejudice of participator to become. Therefore developing the reflection process that has historical important meaning and usually follow a kind of beginning self reinforces , however final meeting the form that self shatters , this is the program of prosperity and decline that I say. Reflection moves mutual if when arrival prosperity former stage self correction, will not develop to have historical meaning , but this kind of case is few many with the case that appears compared with the overallness prosperity caused to decline.
Ask: Have you a
I have established one form, part is basis observation, part is basis logic, but what I want to emphasize is that this form has no decision or is mandatory. First, the process of prosperity and decline may stop in any stage, secondly, the model of this form describes in the process under isolated state, under actual condition many processes at the same time occur, disturb each other mutually, the program of prosperity and decline can receive to go to outside force to break , isolated pattern identical condition and the process of actual incident are seldom seen. However this model has established some program, minute is some stages, and we can't seek major stage to take off the process of prosperity and decline of order , therefore can follow certain form really when the program of prosperity and decline occurs.
Ask: Have you
Process is usual with the tendency that not known as beginning, after tendency broad character knows. This kind of knowledge can usually strengthen tendency, in this initial stage, popular tendency and popular prejudice will be of each other to mend winner, in this stage, we can not still say that is the state of being far away from balance , only process can just occur this kind of situation gradually, when developing. Tendency becomes to satisfy , rely on prejudice gradually, prejudice becomes gradual increase. In this duration, prejudice and tendency may be repetitive to get the trial of external shake strength , will become more powerful if they have boiled trial, always arrive to become can not seemingly move , we may be called this stage to" accelerate issue". Until the gap between faith and actual situation becomes too big, makes the prejudice of participator arise a high point when geting extreme attention, we may be called this high point to" test issue", tendency possibility relies on inertia to keep continuously, can not however already reinforce again by faith, thus cause the state with gently trend, we are called this stage " dawn issue" or " stagnate to expect ", finally, tendency becomes to rely on the prejudice that deepens gradually , losing faith is doomed to facilitate tendency to turn on the contrary, it is critical and some that this kind of tendency turns on the contrary, opposite tendency meeting when opposite direction urges livelihood a kind of prejudice. Cause to be called as the disastrous state of collapse that accelerates. The chart of next page shows that the pattern of prosperity and decline has a kind of not balanced shape , is slow in the beginning , then accelerates gradually , reaches very excessive form , is dawn issue and disastrous collapse and process finish then, tendency and prejudice will not and is the same before, the very process of prosperity and decline will not be repeated independently, it can arise one system transform.
订阅：
博文评论 (Atom)
没有评论:
发表评论