Wave general Er certificate fake doctrine for him major enlighten is: He has revealed mankind to accept to know campaign in principle not completeness. People can only be close to truth in the process of unceasing criticism, all judgments in this process are temporarily effective only, and it is the object with fake certificate. Scientific theory can only quilt certificate is fake can not be confirmed
For social phenomenon and the research of natural phenomenon, it is different, because in the latter, the thought of participator becomes a composition part of the state of affairs wanted to know that cannot cut apart , the development of state of affairs does not have relative to ideological independence.
Turn over to express that the state of affairs of participator that thought and they participate in does not have complete independence. Two interaction and mutual decision do not have any symmetry or are replied.
Marxism is discussed by decision, this kind of new dialectical law passes through the choice of participator establishment over when for the built-in not complete knowledge of thing this demonstration, have put forward a kind of uncertain principle.
In the uncertainty of person that thought brings for the development of state of affairs same quantum mechanics measure to forbid principle is similar( measure has contained the influence of macroscopic instrument), but do not signify decidedly that we are impossible and accurate to grasp the objective law in microscopic process. Under the prerequisite of the influence that recognizes participator, or get some objective message about historical process state of affairs, may carry out forecast on certain degree.
People can not often so insist open mouth because
On the contrary in , the most important two-way feedback mechanism may be run at any time , but is not to run at any time. In fact under the most condition, it is very weak. Sometimes, is close to balance, have some correction mechanism right now may prevent accepting to know arise excessiveness with reality deviate from , classical economy is suitable , accepts to know , may neglect as noise with the divergence between reality; Sometimes, is far away from balance , turn over the two-way feedback mechanism in running right now, unless some condition or system the change with remarkable appearance, otherwise accept to know will not tend to consistent with reality , and accept to know can not turn on the contrary with realistic change.
In social sciences, the viewpoint of participator has deviation in principle. A group of condition will not be direct to cause another group condition. There is unceasing interaction between the objective and considerable condition of examining and the observation of participator; The decision-making of participator is not based on the very external condition, son time base is for the explanation of external condition. This has introduced the universal principle that does not determine factor , makes main part can not follow explanation and the forecast of natural science to handle matter. General social sciences attempts to neglect or eliminate this kind of uncertainty.
Only under some aspects and some special conditions, uncertainty just becomes important. Is same, when for the future expectation can influence present behavior( if in financial market), the importance of uncertainty can just show ( make turn over the crucial condition with meaningful but intermittence exists , financial market most time presents random roam state). Even if in financial market, also have only , after some mechanism starts , the prejudice of participator can just influence market , influences basic surface even. While influencing basic surface, it is just to turn over the time with important , right now market price change tendency can follow different pattern. Market price not only reflects basic surface right now, will also become one of basic surface and moulds the evolution of price. Compromise is recursive(RECURSIVE) relation price
Stock price estimate temporarily
International bank gives developing
When understanding self, it is subjective and objective is one body. Thought campaign the part of being thought for elephant. In in social incident, what form uncertain essential factor is the very thought of participator do not resemble to measure to forbid principle so is external observation person disturb. Right now the chain of cause and effect no longer is from fact to fact, and arrive from fact to accept to know , and then know fact since accepting. And accepting is known and do not have corresponding or equivalence relation between fact, because accepting to know what is concerned with is not fact, is a kind of depends on participator to accept the feelings boundary known , therefore can not regard as fact.
The meaning with the market price list reaching future deviation, market is wrong always( instead of trend make accurate discount for the future development of market). Distortion takes effect on two directions, not only the expected existence of market participator deviation, at the same time, this kind of deviation also influences the process of trade campaign, may cause market to be accurate to expect the false appearance of future development, may is not present expectation in fact conform with future incident to suit , is future incident from present expectation mould. Participator accept the defect known is and give birth all come , imperfect accept to know have a kind of two-way contact with the reality of incident between process, between this causes two lack replies in, this two-way contact is to turn over.
The hypothesis of the foundation
Not only the viewpoint of others
Macroeconomics becomes
System is the
Between loan behavior and guarantee appraise existence turns over. Control people and turn over as the relation between the economy controled for elephant, show periodicity constantly extremely since one moves towards another extremely.
Control period and credit period are approximately overlapping on time, the upper limit of credit expansion and the trend of lower limit of controling relative should, vice versa. Two period interactions, form not the locus of law. .
Circulate: Strong America is economic and U.S. dollar, high actual interest rate, high two deficits. The central benign circle of economic system and the vicious circle of periphery economy coexist , but big cycle has inborn instability.
Credit instead of currency is most
Flourish do not apply to with desolate
Classical economy supposes demand and supply curve established is not reasonable, because for the expectation that begs to have embodied participator , participator expects to again influence supply and demand.
The continued price change
Expansion and the contraction
The not complete understanding of participator is different from the not complete understanding of home of social sciences. The understanding of home of natural science is also not complete , but may be decision criteria with natural phenomenon. In social sciences, the thought of participator is not independent and given for elephant , but is the decision-making that relies on person.
Thought has developed double function. Participator attempts to understand the process that their view at the same time again influences incident as decision-making foundation of feelings boundary that they participate in.
The symmetry between explanation and forecast
The thought of participator is the part of related feelings boundary. Participator accept know and feelings boundary interaction, a change can arouse two changes , has no balance , is the change that does not stop and have no definiteness only.
Between stock price change and basic surface change
Price does not reflect value, and it is to influence price , influences basic surface. Price at the same time influences this two factors by basic tendency and mainstream deviation synthesis, it does not change that 3 variables can not keep. When price change has strengthened basic tendency, tendency self strengthens , is self correction otherwise. In a prosperous desolate sequence, finding the price of a rising change , have been been partial to reinforced stage actively, and one the price change that is declining the stage of quilt that negative deviation strengthens , as well as a basic tendency and mainstream deviation the climacteric decided jointly. The feature of this sequence is: The tendency that investor has not realized , self strengthens the inspection in process that starts and succeeds , the confidence of increasing strengthening, the unceasing enlargement of discrepancy between reality and expectation that arouses from this , investor accepts know in defect, market forms climax and reverse self reinforced process.
Usually, mainstream deviation will not influence basic surface, and self corrects meeting. But it is strengthened that when basic factor gets serious influence, deviation may be serious and distorted and arouses self eliminating with self reduce process. When participator comes out for the defect expression of the understanding of basic factor, start mainstream the worse turning of deviation stage.
Any condition takes off turn over can not replace basic analysis , and it is to remedy the shortcoming of basic analysis. On the contrary, theory grows in understanding and differentiate the core that has the price change of historical importance and can reach problem therefore.
Group enterprise heat: Once market begins to catch up to hold , may purchase other companies with the stock estimated high , then, each profit increases , self reinforcement then self eliminates to reduce.
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The free floating system of
Inflation and the interaction
Investment capital attracts for
Basic factor the role in remiting city than when the stock market is more weak, because speculative capital strength is too big. The market sentiment of foreign exchange step long period fluctuate considerably.
Germany when the appreciation
Only true Gao Qi of interest rate the repayment of the investment of material object is low, hot money will be accumulated continuously , change capital into the currency of appreciation maintain its mobility than investment the asset of material object profits is larger. To make this summary have universal validity, must prove that floating exchange rate contacts with the high repayment of financial asset and the low repayment of thing investment.
If be able to hold tendency or
Long-term tendency becomes
The contacts of economic campaign and loan
Control person also has defect
The length of control period is seems related with credit period , is controled and has two-way contact between credit. Credit expansion and the change of economic atmosphere and contraction are closely linked , two interact.
When credit is extended , bank loan behavior
Even if knowing tendency meeting,
The expansion currency
Currency doctrine is considered , it is
On the contrary, process does not
When circulating , high interest rate and capital flow to enter , monetary policy is more tight, derate , two deficits and strong economies increase , strong U.S. dollar. Unfavorable balance of trade has inhibition for U.S. dollar and American economy, but the stimulate of budget deficit is economic( short period has stimulate effect, but for a long period, seeing produce on the contrary, because it has raised interest rate, fund assigns redundant civil servants to other jobs from the part that has productivity more), import restrains to know to expand, capital flows to enter to remedy deficit and support U.S. dollar between( exchange rate and speculative capital existence automatic enlarger system, speculative capital accumulation has very heavy burden to certain degree and American debt, speculative capital runs away , amount to together with deficit, U.S. dollar will be collapsed. Capital flows to enter can not compensate budget deficit , must raise interest rate in order to promote domestic save in order to remedy deficit, it is weak that Zhejiang causes to consume and slump, capital will be fled , is weak U.S. dollar as a result, it is weak and economic , high interest rate). American prosperous home of debtor nation is unlucky, Japanese to be benefited ( export is many, there are many saves, capital output many).
Big circulating major pillar is strong
Financial system trend
Forecast record is not reliable but
It can foresee generally expected psychology , foresees as to the accuracy for realistic world that is not necessary if the successful secret formula on financial market lies in. Do not come in analysis financial market tendency, my method also seldom gives , is definite to foresee conclusion, its role lies in when process in take place offer to carry out the frame of understanding. Effective reason is that frame accords with the run mode of financial market. Market is also designing various hypothesises pay Zhu inspection, pass through get reinforcement, otherwise had been superseded , market tests quest way out again and again, I want to construct frame and hypothesis to carry out inspection , so do have to be better. For the success on the operation of only standard of my hypothesis inspection.
Market has offered to distinguish to invest in the standard of decision , has also offered participator the standard that knows self idea falsehood from this , still influences the cause and effect of incident to contact. Market to the standard that happens always and popular prejudice. The more people trust market, the more market is unstable.
The forecast on market is nearly impossible to always realize. Financial market may restrain or promote future process. Financial collapse minds unexpected time always to arrive. For the pursuit of truth, do not allow with unconditional language fire and water.
Market always helps me often to keep for the sober perception
Should not two extremity regards as mutual
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