Requirement profession values , like
Do not do stock domestic investment,
Requirement enterprise Long-term prospect is valued , has unique advantage( for example patent right, the errors such as bank card the enterprise of bridge charge), the independence of management level is frank, independent, it is lateral that distribution capital carries out management level efficiently and more vertical comparison
The definiteness that liability enterprise is easy to, by decline, hurt the forecast and definiteness that liability influences enterprise development just high ( will borrow carefully therefore , carry out financial investment also is such); It is hurt that fixing high to put in enterprise receive easily to know to expand
The expansion potentiality of first class enterprise is very important, it is nearly impossible to be foreseen that 2 flows out the income of enterprise, do not sell the chicken of next golden egg easily
The enterprise that product influences by technical progress too not good assurance( very difficult accurate forecast its cash flows , this is the important reason that Ba-Fei-Te does not invest in the share of science and technology. However for science and technology the person of certain field special understanding may do)
Consumption monopolizes ( can stabilize monopolize
Enterprise the might that may fix a price
The might
Monopoly and plenty
Create value for customer
Profit more is when analysis
Reservation surplus/Reservation surplus)/Each reservation surplus is also important, reservation surplus should be used to enlarge the original key business of profit, instead of the development and equipment that is used to update new product.
If can reckon each profit/Buying price action
Market share, theROE, research and develop
High repayment( the money gained after the issue of business founding far exceed operational needs, not need big investment can get profit ) often counter-purchase stock just( counter-purchase will cause each surplus rising, when price/earning ratio maintenance constant condition takes off , price will go up with the multiple of price/earning ratio. For example, each surplus rising10%, price/earning5Time does not change10%Is just all right50%) is good
Circulating
( the company of relation
Value invisible
Capital expense95%The capital expense of American/Capital expense
When do not consider/The long-term remuneration rate
Cash flows to fold now apply to the input of initial stage especially is big, afterwards, put in little enterprise. It is not very suitable for manufacturing, manufacturing may be folded with shareholder surplus now, shareholder surplus finger net income adds depreciation stand to sell and amortize cost reduces capital expense to reduce other business expense etc. again)
Discount rate( use the long-term interest rate of government bonds normally , low position goes up tune) do not add risk premium, risk is reflected in the adjustment of safe limit( the distance between price and value).
Reckoning future each surplus, and then reckoning future share price, compared with present price, the definite annual average rate of investment returns is compared with the return rate of other investments , exclude the influence of inflation, is Ba-Fei-Te a kind of choose share method.
Each surplus and current each net asset of basis, consider bonus proportion and the shareholder remuneration rate of rights and interests , put out future each net asset and each surplus and combination price/earning ratio , and then push the derivation rate of investment returns , and then add dividend to deduct tax revenue , may get net investment returns. Having investment returns rate final must compare with the rate of investment returns of government bonds comparatively
Pay no attention to10The expected remuneration
The task of research
Others is careful It is opportunity
The report
Do not worry about the unmanned
Can bear share price to cut in half0-20%)
( many subjects) Subconscious+It is reasonable
Opportunity
Probability theory=Rising*2-1, combination
Analysis
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